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The Refractive Thinker, Volume 2: Research Methodology by Cheryl A. Lentz
I was hoping the presentation would be technical enough to be able to better understand the basics of quantum computing in the sense of a future time-line of when this new technology would be ready for the market place as defined during the course of my own research Jordan, which is to say that a working prototype would be ready for full-scale testing. I was disappointed. During the set-up for the real purpose of the talk, the presenter stated that the phases of quantum computing could be thought of as being in three phases of increasing complexity: a quantum annealing; b quantum simulation; and, c universal quantum computing.
Ultimately, the goal would be c. But the current state of the technology is a. It was also stated that there were essentially three possible technologies for quantum computing: a super conducting loops; b trapped ions; and, c topological braiding.
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Both a and c require cryogenic cooling. The IBM device uses technology a that is cooled down to 15 miliK0 whew! Technology b involves capturing ions in an optical trap using lasers. This technology operates at room temperature but suffers from a signal-to-noise problem that a does not. Technology c was not discussed. The IBM device is a qubit machine. These mathematical algorithms were developed during the s. They are complex functions so there is a real part and an imaginary part. When queried the presenter stated the gains achieved by this so-called quantum annealing device were from the simplicity of the computation not the speed of the processor.
The presenter went on to say that the basic algorithms had been coded in Python Python programming language , That the IBM device is based on a qubit processor struck me as being a bit coincidental. Recall from my first post on this subject, there has been an effort by some unidentified group to develop a fault-tolerant qubit device since As of the publication of the paper this had not been achieved Dyakonov, When I asked about this, the presenter simply stated that the IBM device was fault-tolerant but declined to offer any specific statistically based response.
It should be stated that, during the presentation, Dr. Yndurain remarked that information included was cherry-picked [my words, not hers] to put things in the best light. During the presentation, what became clear is that IBM is building an ecosystem around the qubit device.
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It seems to me this leaves two fundamental questions on the table: a will quantum computing be the next great disruptive innovation that supplants silicone dioxide Schneider, The U. Nobody really knows, Simonite, ; b What was the point of the presentation? My answer to the first question is that I remain skeptical. When queried, the presenter said that the materials used were proprietary and would not be available for use by the audience.
I will also say that there was a notable lack of specific information in the presentation materials that could be verified. This suggests the answer to the second question: the point of the presentation was a sales pitch. IBM seems to be building an ecosystem around this qubit device that will solidify market share for what was admittedly the very earliest stage of quantum computing. Jordan, E. The semiconductor industry and emerging technologies: A study using a modified Delphi Method. Doctoral Dissertation. AZ: University of Pheonix.
Python programming language. Schneider, D. The U. National Academies reports on the prospects for quantum computing. When will quantum computing have real commercial value? Nobody really knows. Simonite, T. Now what? On April 2, Do you know what Gordon Moore actually said? In Gordon Moore observed that if you graphed in the increase of transistors on a planar semiconductor device using semi-log paper, it would describe a straight line. Rather it was simply an observation. Moore adjusted the pronouncement in to set the vertical scale at every two years Simonite, This so-called law has been the social imperative that has fueled innovation in the semiconductor manufacturing industry for well over 50 years.
But it was a social imperative only Jordan, It was clear from the beginning that the physics of the material would eventually get in the way of the imperative.
ISBN 13: 9780982874066
There is a physical limit to how far you can shrink the size of the individual devices using silicon dioxide, the underlying material of which all our electronics is made. That limit appears to be about 10 nanometers Jordan, ; Simonite, There are also other more practical reasons why this limit may be unachivable such as heat disapation Jordan, Although, given the cell phone industry seems to be driving the technology of late, significant strides have been made in reducing power consumption of these devices. This lower power consumption implies less heat generation. It also seems to imply getting away from a purely Van Neuman computational architecture toward a more parallel approach to code execution.
This brings us to the fundamental question: what technology is next?
https://dyepicktalba.tk When will that technology emerge into the market place? My own research into these questions resulted in some rather interesting answers. One of the more surprising responses was the consensus about what was meant by emerging into the market place. The consensus of the Delphi panel I used in my research was when there was a full scale prototype ready for rigorous testing Jordan, One of the most surprising answers addressed the consensus about what the technology would be that replaces silicon dioxide.
My research suggests the replacement technology would be biologic in nature, RNA perhaps? The research also suggests this new technology would certainly emerge within the upcoming 30 years Jordan, Given the research was conducted nine years ago, this suggests the new technology should be ready for full-scale prototype testing in about 20 years from now.
I will address why this time frame is of significance shortly.